Thursday, September 19, 2019

Thursday, September 19, 2019

Cook, Los Angeles, Miami-Dade counties most at risk of measles outbreak, study finds


Morguefile.com

Illinois’ Cook County is the U.S. jurisdiction most at risk of a measles outbreak this year, according to a study published this month in the British medical journal The Lancet Infectious Diseases.

The study titled “Measles resurgence in the USA: How international travel compounds vaccine resistance” includes a predictive model showing the 25 counties that face the largest risk of new measles cases.

Other counties on the list most at risk of a measles breakout include Los Angeles, Miami-Dade and Queens. The degree of risk was measured on a scale of zero to 1.000, the highest probability.

The analysis measured four key factors to determine the likeliest locations for measles outbreaks: international air travel volume to the county, the existence of nonmedical exemptions that would lower vaccination rates, the county’s population and rates of measles outbreaks in the countries international visitors are coming from.

So far this year, close to 900 measles cases have been reported in 24 states, according to the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). That’s more cases than any year since 2000 when the highly contagious disease was declared eradicated, the CDC reported.

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Counties With Highest Risk for Measles in 2019

RankCountyState Relative Risk
1CookIllinois1.000
2Los AngelesCalifornia0.432
3Miami-DadeFlorida0.381
4QueensNew York0.293
5KingWashington0.140
6MaricopaArizona0.123
7BrowardFlorida0.106
8ClarkNevada0.093
9HarrisTexas0.087
10HonoluluHawaii0.067
11WayneMichigan0.052
12TarrantTexas0.048
13MultnomahOregon0.047
14OrangeFlorida0.046
15EssexNew Jersey0.045
16DenverColorado0.022
17HillsboroughFlorida0.019
18San MateoCalifornia0.019
19Salt Lake CityUtah0.018
20SuffolkMassachusetts0.017
21ClaytonGeorgia0.013
22TravisTexas0.013
23HennepinMinnesota0.012
24LoudounVirginia0.012
25San DiegoCalifornia0.010
Source: The Lancet Infectious Diseases

Organizations in this Story

U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

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